Finance and
economics people are good at many different things, and we have never had a
pleasure of listing modesty among our virtues. Sadly, predicting future has
never been in the list either. As Paul Samuelson, a Nobel
laureate (and the author of the best-selling
economics textbook ever) famously joked in 1966, ‘Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions’,
and our record has hardly improved since then.
